Global olive oil consumption may be on the path to recovery.
According to the latest data from the International Olive Council (IOC), global consumption in the 2024/25 harvest year is expected to increase by 10% compared to the previous period.
If this forecast materializes, it will mark a significant recovery following the 2.6% decline recorded in the 2023/24 harvest season compared to the previous year.
In the 2024/25 season, global consumption is expected to exceed 3,064,500 metric tons, surpassing the estimated 2,780,000 tons consumed in 2023/24.
Notably, in the past six years, some olive oil-producing countries have experienced significant fluctuations in consumption.
According to IOC forecasts, consumption in Spain, the world’s largest olive oil producer, has shown a steady decline and has remained below 500,000 tons since the 2022/23 season.
Spain consumed 519,000 tons in the 2019/20 season, 541,000 tons in 2020/21, and 580,000 tons in 2021/22. However, due to extreme weather conditions severely affecting production and driving up prices across the Mediterranean, consumption dropped to 363,000 tons in the 2022/23 harvest year.
Since then, consumption has gradually recovered. The IOC forecasts 402,000 tons for 2023/24 and 460,000 tons for 2024/25.
Although these figures are still below the record 580,000 tons recorded in 2021/22, they are close to the ten-season average of 483,850 tons.
Another major producer, Italy, has seen relatively stable olive oil consumption over the past five seasons, hovering around 426,000 tons.
However, the IOC forecasts a 4% decline for 2024/25. If this projection holds, Italy’s olive oil consumption will fall below 400,000 tons for the first time, reaching 395,000 tons.
This would mark the third consecutive year of declining consumption in Italy.
Overall, total olive oil consumption in the European Union is expected to exceed 1,326,000 tons in the 2024/25 harvest year, reflecting a 7% increase compared to the previous season.
"The European Union has experienced a declining trend in olive oil consumption in recent years," the IOC noted, highlighting:
"While global consumption has nearly doubled since the 1990/91 season, the EU’s share of total consumption has decreased from over 70% in the 2004/05 season to around 45% in recent years."
Among other major producing countries, the IOC anticipates consumption declines only in Algeria (-1%) and Egypt (-11%).
On the other hand, major olive oil importers are expected to increase their purchases. In the United States, consumption is projected to rise by 8% in the 2024/25 season compared to the five-year average.
China and Australia are also expected to record significant increases in olive oil imports.
Notably, Turkey’s olive oil consumption is also rising. A 21% increase is projected for the 2024/25 season compared to the five-year average.
Turkey is expecting a significant increase in olive oil production this season, which could position the country among the world's leading producers.
Meanwhile, global table olive consumption is expected to remain stable at around 3,000,000 tons in the 2024/25 season, in line with the estimated 2,900,000 tons in 2023/24.
The IOC reports that many countries have significantly increased their table olive production over the past 30 years.
Since the 1990/91 harvest year, Egypt’s table olive production has risen from 11,000 tons to 520,000 tons in 2023/24. Over the same period, Algeria’s production has grown from 14,000 tons to 285,000 tons, while Turkey’s output has increased from 110,000 tons to 350,000 tons.
According to the IOC's latest market analysis, there have been significant fluctuations in olive oil prices.
One of the notable trends is the change in mill prices. In Jaén, Spain, and Chania, Crete, Greece, prices peaked between October 2022 and October 2023 but have since declined significantly.
As of October 2024, prices in both markets have dropped considerably. If this trend continues, prices could fall below €400 per 100 kilograms in both countries.
However, the situation in the Italian market is quite different.
In Bari, prices remain at €950 per 100 kilograms, nearing the record levels seen in 2023. This suggests that Italian olive oil producers are facing a particularly challenging season.
